'While investors need to be prepared for making some losses, they should not lose big money chasing euphoria amid fear of missing out.'
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed down to a 4-month low of 8.1 per cent in September 2023 against 8.3 per cent a year ago, according to the official data released on Tuesday. The growth rate in the output of refinery products, fertiliser, cement and electricity during the month under review has decelerated, while it was negative in the case of crude oil. The previous low was in May, when the growth rate of these sectors stood at 5.2 per cent.
Manufacturing, which has around 80 per cent weight in the Index of Industrial Production --a measure of factory output in the country -- rose by 17.9 per cent during the month against one per cent a year ago.
The IIP data showed a significant slowdown in the manufacturing sector, which grew at 4.2 per cent in July 2019 as compared to 7 per cent a year ago.
'Retail investors, who had not seen such a massive correction in the SMID universe since COVID-19, are witnessing something like this for the first time. Panic profit booking may continue.'
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
MNC funds invest in companies where foreign promoters have more than 50 per cent shareholding.
Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami. "This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 10.9 per cent in January this year as against 8.5 per cent in the corresponding month last year.
During April-August, the eight sectors grew by 4.4 per cent, against 4.2 per cent in the year-ago period.
The industry performed badly during the last month of 2007-08, with growth decelerating to 3 per cent from 14.8 per cent in the year-ago period, a development that could be a major cause for concern for the government that is now focusing on fighting high inflation.
During April-September, the eight sectors grew by 4 per cent, against 5 per cent in the year-ago period.
The growth is particularly remarkable because it comes at levels higher than during the pre-Covid times, notes Mahesh Vyas.
Continuing its dismal performance, industrial growth fell further to 1.9 per cent in September, mainly due to poor output from the manufacturing sector.
Global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and the start of the earnings season would be the major drivers for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Eid-Ul-Fitr. Trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trends and crude oil prices would also guide trends in markets.
Inflation trajectory does not match the slump in demand, prolonged pause on rates likely.
India's annual industrial output growth slowed to 4.2 per cent in July compared with an upwardly revised 4.4 per cent growth a month ago, government data showed on Friday.
India's industrial output grew 9.7 per cent in August compared to 7.6 per cent in the same month last fiscal.\n\n
As per use-based classification, primary good registered a growth of 7.4 per cent, intermediate goods 22.4 per cent, and infrastructure/construction goods 0.1 per cent in February 2020 as against the same period a year ago.
Manufacturing, which constitutes around 80 per cent of the index of industrial production, grew 19.4 per cent in April against 0.4 per cent a year ago, according to official data released on Friday.
In 2024, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) implemented significant reforms, focusing on cooling down the derivatives segment, enhancing transparency and accountability in small and midsised enterprise (SME) listings, and deepening the fund management ecosystem.
According to the data released by the government, the capital goods segment in the overall industrial output rose by 63 per cent in July and pushed up the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) by 13.8 per cent.
The country's industrial production has risen by 11.4 per cent in September 2006 over the year-ago month, powered by double-digit growth in manufacturing and electricity sectors.\n
'Over the next 12 months, it will be difficult to make 15 to 20 per cent return in the markets as the valuations appear stretched.'
While the minimum holding period for LTCG taxation has now been lowered, the tax outgo could be a bit higher under the new structure.
India's industrial production rose 4.9 per cent year-on-year in April, the first month of the current financial year, the official Central Statistical Organisation said on Thursday.
Industrial output fell 3.2 per cent in November.
Wholesale inflation in the country rose for the fourth consecutive month in June at 3.36 per cent on account of rise in prices of food articles, especially vegetables and manufactured items. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation was 2.61 per cent in May. It was (-) 4.18 per cent in June 2023.
The RBI interest rate decision, industrial production data for June and the ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the stock markets this week, analysts said. Other major factors such as global market trends, the movement of oil prices and the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence trading, they added. "The market will have an eye on the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which will be announced on August 10, 2023. We are heading towards the last batch of Q2 earnings of key companies such as Adani Ports, Coal India, Hero MotoCorp, Hindalco and ONGC, among others, which will lead to stock-specific movement," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Production of eight infrastructure sectors increased by 5.4 per cent in November against a 3.2 per cent growth in the same month last year on a better show by coal, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity segments, according to the official data released on Friday. Crude oil, natural gas and refinery products, however, recorded negative growth in November this year. The production growth of eight key sectors slowed down to 0.9 per cent in October.
Stock markets would take cues from the upcoming macroeconomic data announcements and global trends besides keeping a watch on the trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The last batch of the ongoing earnings calendar would trigger stock-specific action, traders said. "This week, we have to deal with macroeconomic data on both the domestic and global front.
India's industry sector grew by 6.7 per cent in July 2005 compared to 8.5 per cent in the same month a year ago.
Industrial production grows at 2.1 per cent in March.
The country's industrial output growth trickled to 6.2 per cent in October, the lowest this fiscal, on account of a slowdown in manufacturing production.
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed down to 4.3 per cent in May 2023 due to a decline in the production of crude oil, natural gas and electricity, according to the data released by the government on Friday. The core sector growth was 19.3 per cent in May 2022, while in April 2023, the key infra sectors recorded a growth rate of 4.3 per cent. During April-May this fiscal, the output growth of these eight sectors slowed down to 4.3 per cent against 14.3 per cent in the year-ago period, the data showed.
Tasting success with the relaunch of Sensex derivatives in the onshore market, BSE is preparing for the 'offshore' debut of its 30-share index, which has become synonymous with the domestic markets. Sources in the know said that the India International Exchange (India INX), a subsidiary of BSE, received approval in July from the International Financial Services Centres Authority (IFSCA) to launch Sensex 30 derivatives contracts.
Inflation, remained in negative territory for the 7th month in May
The core infrastructure industries had expanded by 5.2 per cent in the previous month.
Buoyant manufacturing sector has pushed up industrial growth to 13.6 per cent in the first month of the current financial year against 9.9 per cent in April.
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