If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
IIP growth has been revised upwards to 2.5 per cent in December, from the provisional estimates of 1.8 per cent.
Production of eight infrastructure sectors recorded an almost flat growth rate of 6 per cent in February as against 5.9 per cent in the same month last year, according to official data released on Friday. The growth in February is lowest in the last three months. The output of core sectors had increased by 8.9 per cent in January 2023 and 7 per cent in December 2022.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key triggers for the domestic stock markets this week, analysts said. Last week, the benchmark indices joined the broader market's party despite a host of negative global cues. In the broader market, the BSE midcap and smallcap gauges hit their all-time highs on Friday.
Industrial output grows at meagre rate of one per cent in 2012-13 compared to 2.9 per cent in the previous fiscal.
For the first eight months, industrial output, as measured by the index of industrial production, rose by 3.9 per cent against 9.2 per cent in the corresponding period of 2007-08.
After contracting for the first time in 15 years in October, industrial production again crashed by two per cent in December against a growth rate of a whopping 8 per cent a year ago despite a stimulus package announced by the government to boost sagging demand.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI's interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said. Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.
India's services sector growth touched a four-month high in December, supported by new business inflows on strong demand conditions and easing inflationary pressures, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index, rose from 58.4 in November to 59.3 in December, highlighting the strongest rate of expansion in four months.
Portfolio management services (PMS), catering to higher networth individuals (HNIs), are facing tough competition from emerging alternative investment funds (AIFs), evident from their dwindling client base. In May, the number of clients for the industry stood at 125,390, down 20,528 in two months, shows data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). "PMS managers also have a high active ratio, which means their portfolios are quite differently positioned and more actively managed, compared to the benchmark, which is also a highlight for long-term investors.
India's manufacturing sector growth fell to a 12-month low in December, as new business orders and production expanded at softer rates, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was at 56.4 in December, down from 56.5 in November, indicating a weaker improvement in operating conditions.
'Spending by the middle class is limited with a focus on savings. However, there is buoyancy at the top-end.'
'The pollution has increased. We are facing breathing problems and irritation in the eyes'
Manufacturing, which has around 80 per cent weight in the Index of Industrial Production --a measure of factory output in the country -- rose by 17.9 per cent during the month against one per cent a year ago.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 10.9 per cent in January this year as against 8.5 per cent in the corresponding month last year.
The industry performed badly during the last month of 2007-08, with growth decelerating to 3 per cent from 14.8 per cent in the year-ago period, a development that could be a major cause for concern for the government that is now focusing on fighting high inflation.
During April-August, the eight sectors grew by 4.4 per cent, against 4.2 per cent in the year-ago period.
Stock markets will be driven by domestic inflation data, ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends this week, analysts said. News flows around the general election would also be tracked by investors, market experts said.
During April-September, the eight sectors grew by 4 per cent, against 5 per cent in the year-ago period.
'If the US stagnates and falls into a recession, the dollar will weaken, oil prices will also dip. This augurs well for India.'
Inflation trajectory does not match the slump in demand, prolonged pause on rates likely.
Continuing its dismal performance, industrial growth fell further to 1.9 per cent in September, mainly due to poor output from the manufacturing sector.
The IIP data showed a significant slowdown in the manufacturing sector, which grew at 4.2 per cent in July 2019 as compared to 7 per cent a year ago.
India's industrial output grew 9.7 per cent in August compared to 7.6 per cent in the same month last fiscal.\n\n
India's annual industrial output growth slowed to 4.2 per cent in July compared with an upwardly revised 4.4 per cent growth a month ago, government data showed on Friday.
'In the past six months, capital markets have seen a dip, and realty is struggling. The stock-market investor will be cautious of putting that investment in real estate when there may be a slowdown coming.'
Manufacturing, which constitutes around 80 per cent of the index of industrial production, grew 19.4 per cent in April against 0.4 per cent a year ago, according to official data released on Friday.
According to the data released by the government, the capital goods segment in the overall industrial output rose by 63 per cent in July and pushed up the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) by 13.8 per cent.
The country's industrial production has risen by 11.4 per cent in September 2006 over the year-ago month, powered by double-digit growth in manufacturing and electricity sectors.\n
India's industrial production rose 4.9 per cent year-on-year in April, the first month of the current financial year, the official Central Statistical Organisation said on Thursday.
Industrial output fell 3.2 per cent in November.
As per use-based classification, primary good registered a growth of 7.4 per cent, intermediate goods 22.4 per cent, and infrastructure/construction goods 0.1 per cent in February 2020 as against the same period a year ago.
India's industry sector grew by 6.7 per cent in July 2005 compared to 8.5 per cent in the same month a year ago.
The country's industrial output growth trickled to 6.2 per cent in October, the lowest this fiscal, on account of a slowdown in manufacturing production.
Industrial production grows at 2.1 per cent in March.
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
Inflation, remained in negative territory for the 7th month in May
The core infrastructure industries had expanded by 5.2 per cent in the previous month.
